There seem to be opposing views on what has caused the big drop in stocks this week after closing at new bull market highs on Tuesday. So we've created a poll to see what investors think contributed the most to the declines. Please take part in the poll below, and we'll report back with the results shortly. Thanks!
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Bespoke Market Poll
2009 Bespoke Reader Outlook
With 2009 fast approaching, we have created our annual Bespoke reader survey in hopes of obtaining the consensus views of Think B.I.G. followers. We ask that you please provide us with the country and state (if USA) that you live in so we can track any regional discrepancies as well. From the stock market to oil to the economy, we've covered a wide array of investment topics, and we'll share the results right at the start of 2009.
And as an appreciation for your participation in the survey as well as your continued support of our site, we will give the two individuals with the closest guesses (above or below) to the "where will the Dow close on the last trading day of 2008" question a Bespoke tie from Vineyard Vines. We recently had the popular Vineyard Vines ties custom made with the Bespoke logo on them as shown at right. These ties are awesome, and one can be yours if you're the most prescient survey respondent.
To be eligible to receive the tie, we'll need your actual email address, but if you do not wish to give your email (even though we don't do anything with them), you can enter noemail@bespokepremium.com.
Thanks for participating, and be sure to visit www.bespokepremium.com to subscribe to our renowned research service for just $1/day.
Dow 6,000?
Yesterday, we asked Bespoke readers how low they thought the Dow would get between now and 2009. The number that received the most responses was 6,000. Of the 675 readers who participated in the poll, 215 (32%) said 6,000 would be the low, 167 (25%) said 7,000 would be the low, and 108 (16%) said 5,000 would be the low. To reach 6,000, the Dow would have to fall another 22% from yesterday's close, and it would be down 57.74% from its record high reached in October 2007.
Monday's Rally Poll Results
After more than 800 of you voted, the results to yesterday's poll regarding the market's rally show that the majority of Bespoke's readers are bearish on the market's prospects for the rest of the month. When asked whether the S&P 500 would finish the month of October higher or lower than Monday's (10/13) close, 51.3% of you said it would close lower, while 48.7% said it would close higher.
Guess The Dow With Bespoke's Prediction Poll
Where do you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close on August 8th? Please enter your prediction by taking part in the poll below. Predictions must be in by this Sunday at midnight. The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service. Thanks for participating!
Prediction Poll Results
Just a quick post on the results from this week's Dow Prediction Poll. The average poll respondent predicted that the Dow will close this Friday at 11,473.49, which is 23 points below the Dow's current level of 11,496.57. After we finally saw some gains last week, the collective response to our poll is slightly negative for this week.
This Week's Prediction Poll Results
For those that wish to track the results of our Prediction Poll, below we highlight the individual responses from this week's poll along with the average of all participants. As shown, the average of all predictions for where the Dow would finish the week was 11,183. Based on the closing price of 11,100.54 last Friday, participants are looking for a gain of about 74 bps this week. After we get a couple months worth of results, we'll post a historical chart of the weekly averages compared with the actual Dow.
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Bespoke's Prediction Poll and Last Week's Winner
The winner of last week's Bespoke Prediction Poll guessed that the Dow would close the week at 11,350 -- just 0.03% percent from today's actual close of 11,346.51. Congratulations on the prediction and winning one free month of the Bespoke Premium service! Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Thursday (Friday is July 4th). The index is currently trading at 11,346.51. Predictions must be in by Sunday at midnight. The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service. Thanks for participating!
For non-members of the Bespoke Premium service, we have recently begun issuing our Week in Review newsletter that provides a detailed look at the comings and goings in the financial world over the last week. You can sign up to receive the Week in Review along with all of our other reports by visiting BespokePremium.com. Please click the image below to view a previous Week in Review as an example.
Along with our Week in Review newsletter, below we provide the titles of the in-depth B.I.G. Tips reports we released this week. If any spark your interest, they are all available to our Premium subscribers. These are anticipatory, ahead-of-the-curve research reports that cover markets, economies, stocks, commodities, housing and anything else related to making people money.
This week's B.I.G. Tips reports: Earnings Estimate Revisions (stocks with the biggest increases and decreases in analyst estimates), Stock Ratings (a look at the most and least loved stocks from the major financial websites), July 4th Trading (market performance in the week preceding and following July 4th), Big Down Days (market performance following down days similar to Thursday), International Revenues and the Weak Dollar (how have stocks with strong international revenues been holding up?), July Market Seasonality (typical market and stock performance in July), Housing Futures (which direction is real estate heading?), Fed Funds Days (how should the market perform following this week's rate decision?), Decile Analysis (which stock characteristics are moving stocks higher and lower?), Top Stock Technicals (our chart analysis of the top rated stocks), End of Quarter Window Dressing (which stocks should benefit the most and the least from this definite trend?).
Thanks for taking part in the Bespoke Prediction Poll! If you'd like to try out our Premium service, please sign up at BespokePremium.com.
Bespoke Prediction Poll Results
We started our new weekly Prediction Poll last Friday and received nearly 200 reader responses over the weekend for where the Dow 30 would close this Friday the 27th. Below we highlight the results from the poll, and as shown, the average of all predictions was 11,818. The Dow closed at 11,873 on Friday, so that means the crowd is looking for the index to fall 55 points (or -0.46%) this week.
Thanks to all who participated. And remember, the person with the guess closest to the Dow's actual close on Friday will receive one free month of the Bespoke Premium research service.
Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.
Results of Bespoke's Reader Sentiment Poll
On Friday, we asked Bespoke readers to take part in a survey on whether or not the S&P 500 has seen its lows for the year. After nearly 500 responses, the overwhelming majority has said no. As shown below, 75% of participants think the S&P 500 has not yet seen its lows for the year. From the results of this poll, investor sentiment remains bearish.
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Bears in Charge
Bearish participants of the Bespoke Market Poll reached 59% last week, as the S&P 500 declined 2.44%. This is the same level we reached on November 26th when the index made a short-term bottom. Please take part in the poll below to let us know your current view on the S&P 500. Remember, it doesn't matter if you are a short-term or long-term investor. Simply respond based on whatever methodology you use.
Bespoke Readers Turn Slightly Bullish
Respondents to the Bespoke Market Poll turned bullish for the first time since the end of October, as the S&P 500 moved back above its 50-day moving average last week. When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 51% of participants marked "Bullish" while 49% marked "Bearish." With the FOMC meeting headlining the news this week, what is in store for equities going forward? Please let us know by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.
Bespoke Readers Still Bearish
Bespoke bears retreated slightly last week, but they still remain above 50%. When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 54% of participants marked "Bearish" while 46% marked "Bullish." Will historical averages hold true to form this month, or will the declines get worse? Please let us know by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.
59% Are Bearish On The Market
Last week, 59% of Bespoke Market Poll participants marked "Bearish" as their current view on the S&P 500. This is the highest "Bearish" reading since the 64% seen in mid-September. The high "Bearish" number is surprising given the current results of our year-end market poll, which are much more positive. Please let us know your current view of the S&P 500 by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.
The Bespoke Bears Have Come Out
As of midweek, the percentage of Bespoke readers marking "Bearish" as their current view of the S&P 500 stands at 59%. This is the highest level reached since the 64% "Bearish" level we saw on September 16th.
Remember, you can vote in the Bespoke Market Poll whenever you want as your thoughts change, so if you haven't participated, let us know what your current thoughts are on the S&P 500 in the poll below.
Bespoke Readers Remain Slightly Bearish
Fifty-two percent of Bespoke Market Poll participants marked "Bearish" as their current view on the S&P 500 last week, while the index rose 35 bps from Monday through Friday. Readers have remained fairly neutral since mid-October, highlighting the overall uncertainty of what is in store for stocks going forward. Please help us form a consensus view by taking part in our poll below.
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