Sometimes we feel like Bill Murray's character in the movie Groundhog Day, where he relives the same day over and over again. If you have been watching the market recently and also keep finding yourself getting a feeling of Deja Vu, you're not alone. The S&P 500's performance in October has nearly been an exact replica of most of September. The chart below highlights the intraday trading of the S&P 500 from September 2nd to September 30th (left axis), and compares it to the intraday trading from October 2nd through the 21st (right axis). Although it began from a higher price, the S&P 500 has followed the September blueprint nearly tick for tick!
From the low of the month, both rallies lasted thirteen trading days. In September, the S&P 500 rallied by 8.8%, and in October the rally was 7.9%. Then both rallies ended on the 14th day of the advance, when the S&P 500 hit a new high for the year only to sell off and close at its lows for the day. If (big if) October continues to follow the September script, this implies that equities would continue to trade sideways to lower for the rest of the month.
Yes, the manipulation continues.
Posted by: Andre Payne | October 23, 2009 at 09:51 AM
that's crazy
Posted by: Tradermark | October 23, 2009 at 01:28 PM
Interesting. How many other month over month charts look like that also? If this is the only on in say 10 years of charts then something weird is a foot. Otherwise it is probably what happens when a market is trending.
Posted by: Brad | October 23, 2009 at 04:06 PM
Maybe Obama like Clinton thinks anything
is possible with a rising market. The problem with that is smply American comsumerism is dead. And that means that we lost about 65% of our country's collective buying power. It is gone and regardless of the market, there will not be a sustainable recovery here or anywhere else in the world because this buying power is not coming back in the near future.
Note the words of the Chief IMF Economist: " The United States can no longer afford to be the economic engine of the world based on easy credit and excessive debt. Thus, Obama's actions to create four times the debt that Bush created in eight years in just nine months bodes ill winds for our future.
Posted by: dakorman | October 23, 2009 at 04:10 PM
Thanks,
Great article. Hadn't thought about this aspect.
Posted by: dave | October 27, 2009 at 04:14 AM