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Kirk Kinder

If you hold a hurdle up 1 foot, I could easily jump it as well.

Analysts are notoriously bad at predicting future earnings. They are controlled too much by the recency effect.

The key is valuation, and the market is richly valued even if 100% of companies top estimates.


An revenue???? Has anyone sold more than a year ago?



I understand your comment, but analysts hiked estimates significantly going into earnings season, so they really weren't too low and easy to beat. Plus, as of now, 21% of companies have raised guidance for future quarters, which is unprecedented. This doesn't have anything to do with what the analysts think either, it's based on internal projections.



True, the revenue beat rate isn't as high as the earnings beat rate, but as we saw in the prior two quarters, investors simply don't pay as much attention to the revenue numbers if they're being interpreted as negative since stocks have soared. So far this earnings season, the revenue beat rate is a bit higher than the prior two quarters. Also, the average stock that has missed EPS estimates has gone down much more than the average stock that has missed revenue estimates. It's an easy argument if you're bearish, but being negative on the market because revenues aren't as strong as bottom line numbers has cost the investor a lot of money throughout the last 65% of upside gains.


85% ? Shall we hold out for 110% ?

The news is (temporarily) as good as it gets. Sell.


How often will you be updating this chart?

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