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Does it necessarily have to mean anything? It could just be random data. You can plot the correlation between % change in the number of pigeons on wall st. and the % change for the day and probably end up with a similar looking chart.


I think that it's (unfortunately) the impact & prevalence of daytrading over longer timeframe trading. Too often the trend is intraday instead of interday.

Joe Calhoun

When I started in this business way back when, one of the grizzled veterans told me that the dumb money trades in the morning and the smart money trades in the afternoon. After 20+ years of dealing with all kinds of clients from retail investors to institutional traders, I still find that to be generally true. So factor that into your analysis....


It might have something to do with 'flash trading'. The big boys drive up prices in the morning to suck in the amateur momentum traders to whom they then sell the morning's purchases. Someone is being zoomed.

Paul Teetor

International markets are connected, often more than we recognize. International investors are still active in the morning, whereas they are largely gone home by the time New York closes in the afternoon. I wonder if the international trading is giving more weight to morning activity?

Prepared Investor

So the trend for the day has been set in the first hour, lately .. Reminds me of those trader rules where one waits until the first hour to see which direction the market heads and then setups the trades ..

May be there are more day traders of this sort these days ..;) just kidding ..


when dumb money moves the needle, it's a sucker's rally


It is not clear whether you include any opening gaps in the first hour of trading.

Index data is notoriously inaccurate for opening prices so I would appreciate if you would clarify how you have treated opening gaps.

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