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Andrew McCauley

According to a new econophysics forecast, The Shanghai Composite Index will burst between July 17 and 27, 2009.

The following is an extract from the forecast.

"Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval)."

This prediction is largely the result of research based on the work of Didier Sornette of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Zurich, who has written several academic articles on the study of financial market bubbles.

This forecast is grounded by an approach that closely examines the price changes of the index in the framework of positive & negative feedback mechanisms that spur price accelerations & bubble formation.

In the past Sornette’s group have applied their analysis to correctly recognise bubbles & respective reversal dates for the US Housing Boom & the 2008 Oil Bubble.

The research can be accessed from the link below.

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0907/0907.1827.pdf

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