lf the month were to end today, the Nasdaq would be up 16.9% year to date, while the Dow would be down 3.05%. Since 1972 (when the Nasdaq was started), this would be the second biggest outperformance for the Nasdaq versus the Dow in the first half of the year. Below we highlight the difference in performance between the two indices in the first half of the year for every year since the Nasdaq has been around. Only 1983 saw a bigger outperformance for the Nasdaq when it rose 37.13% versus the Dow's gain of 16.76%. In that year, the Dow went up 3% in the second half, while the Nasdaq went down 12.58%, so there was a complete performance reversal. In 1991, the Nasdaq was up 27.31%, while the Dow was up 10.37% (16.94% spread). In the second half of that year, both indices continued higher, with the Nasdaq continuing to outperform. 1978 might be the most comparable to 2009 since the Dow was down slightly in the first half and the Nasdaq was up 14.52%. In that year, both indices went down slightly in the second half.
At least the Nasdaq isn't significantly underperforming the Dow heading into the second half. In the four biggest years of underperformance (2001, 1973, 1974, and 2002), both indices continued lower by quite a bit in the second half.
You should have released the results of the study tomorrow after the close. I wonder why you released it a day early with today's EOD data?
Posted by: Wondering Why | June 29, 2009 at 06:45 PM