Sell in May, Go Away?

We just took a close look at the "Sell in May, Go Away" strategy that Wall Street usually advises this time of year at Bespoke Premium, but below we provide the returns for the Dow over the last 20 years.  The average return for the Dow from the start of May to the end of October over the last 20 years has been 0.44%, while the average return from the start of November to the end of April has been 6.86%.  The median return for the May-October period is much better at 4.29%, while the median return for the November-April period is also better at 7.18%.  And even though the saying advises to sell, the market has been up during the Summer 60% of the time since 1989.  While the returns aren't nearly as good in the Summer as they are during the Winter, they are still positive.

 

Click here to read our in-depth "Sell in May, Go Away" report and receive access to all of the Premium products as well.

Comments

[Jeff]

After the bear markets 1990 and 2002, it moved up 6.28 and 15.58 in 1991 and 2003. So looks like we may not want to go away this time either.

[Tom Cole]

I always look forward to your analysis. I think you may have missed the mark a bit on this, however. It seems to me to gain a feel of how these percentages work out over time you would need to compound them, not average or take the median of them. By my calculations, compounding the returns each year the May-October period actually results in a small loss - $1000 invested starting in 1989 (and the proceeds stored under a matress during the months of November-April) results in a final value of $974.11, a -0.13% loss per year.

Similar calculations on the November-April timeframe show a +6.44% compounded rate of return.

Just as an extreme example, if the market gained 99% one year, and lost 99% of its value the next, the average is 0%. Most people would not be breaking even, however.

[Takloo]

looks like its performs well in Summer following recessions

[Justin]

Hi Tom,

We compounded the returns going back to 1900 in the more in-depth report we did on the subject at Bespoke Premium. http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/sellinmay.pdf