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Your charts should go back more than 12 years. Arguably the credit cycle is normally longer than that.

Paul Teetor

Thank you very much for tracking important spread. I've been trading this one by buying closed-end junk bond funds and selling 10-Treasury calls against them. It's working quite well. The yield on the junk is about 14%, so they are spinning off cash. The short call is profiting through time-decay. And the position has a growing, unrealized profit because the spread is gradually reverting. I think there is more juice remaining is this one.


Doesn't this reflect the Fed's purchase of Treasuries--i.e., setting a de facto low rate for US bonds will make the spreads look historically wide since in the absence of the Fed purchase of Treasuries the rates for govies would be much higher?

I hate to be the one to say it, but historical spread data may not matter much anymore in this new era. . .


Every spread/bond/gold chart looks like S&P 500 upside down.
Any regional stock index looks the same.

I don't see any relevance in looking at same chart over and over and over again !!!

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Thank you so much. Very informative. I think I am not an expert on economy, but still, I think I can use some of this info for my own benefit.

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