Financials Wipeout

In the first chart below we highlight a ratio of the S&P 500 to the S&P 500 Bank group going back to 1940.  When the ratio is rising, the financials are getting weaker relative to the S&P 500 as a whole.  As shown, the ratio is currently as high as it has been over the entire time period, meaning the banks are as small as they've been relative to the overall index.  Where we go from here, nobody knows, but the financials are pretty much getting wiped off the investment map.

 

Below we highlight the percentage declines from peaks of various asset class busts in the last decade.  Prior to the declines that financials, oil, and homebuilders are seeing currently, the only recent comparison for the current generation of investors was the Nasdaq bust from 2000-2002.  As shown, the Nasdaq went down 78% from its March 2000 peak to its October 2002 low.  Following the bursting of the Internet bubble, many investors didn't think they'd see a similar bust for decades.  But the current declines in financials and homebuilders have now eclipsed those of the Nasdaq, and oil has also gone down just as much. 

Oil's decline of 77% from July 2008 to its low in December was the fastest bust of the group, while homebuilders have gone down the most and for the longest period of time.  Since July 2005, the homebuilders are down a whopping 87%!  And the S&P 500 Financial sector is down 81%, which isn't as bad as the homebuilders, but given the fact that it didn't go up nearly as much as the homebuilders, it's probably worse.

 

Comments

[ss]

You should throw, China, Japan, and Russia on that as well.

[Joe]

"In the first chart below we highlight a ratio of the S&P 500 to the S&P 500 Bank group going back to 1940. When the ratio is rising, the financials are getting weaker relative to the S&P 500 as a whole. As shown, the ratio is currently as high as it has been over the entire time period, meaning the banks are as small as they've been relative to the overall index."

Can you clarify exactly what is on the numerator and denominator of this ratio?

It's clearly not (market cap of S&P500)/(market cap of S&PBanking) - as that would suggest banks made up 75% of the index in the 1940s-50s...