While no one is calling it that, we are technically in a new cyclical bull market and have been since December 8th. Since the 11/20 lows, the S&P 500 is up 24%, which meets the standard bull market definition of a 20% rally that was preceded by at least a 20% decline. But the unwillingness for the majority to call it a bull market is what bulls should be thankful for, since the market typically climbs a wall of worry where investors are full of doubt throughout the rally.
Regardless of what you call it, some of the performance numbers since the 11/20 lows are downright crazy. Even though the S&P 500 is up 24% since 11/20, the average stock in the index is up 41.25%. This means the smaller cap names in the index are up much more than their larger cap brethren. And the stocks that were down the most during the 10/9/07-11/20/08 bear are up much more than the ones that were down the least. As shown below, the average performance since 11/20 of the 50 stocks that were down the most during the bear market is 112%! The 50 best performing stocks during the bear market are only up an average of 8.3%.
And while 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are down since November 20th, 29 of them are up more than 100%! Below we highlight these 29 stocks along with their performance during the 10/9/07-11/20/08 bear market. Most of these names were on the brink of collapse but have managed to survive another day. Prologis (PLD) is up by far the most at 610%, followed by LNC (393%), HIG (253%), GNW (220%), and LEN (194%). Other notables on the list of 100% gainers during the current bull include Morgan Stanley (MS), SanDisk (SNDK), Tesoro (TSO), MetLife (MET), Micron (MU), Cigna (CI), and Starwood Hotels (HOT).
You showed the biggest gainers since 11/20 and how much they had lost since 10/9. How about the reverse, the biggest losers from 10/9-11/20 and how much they have gained since? Or would the two be very similar?
Posted by: flenerman | January 07, 2009 at 03:34 AM
Doesn't the proper definition of a bull or bear include a component of time as well as price? Many of the biggest bear market rallies have occurred in the worst bear markets. More time would seem to be needed to put a label on the latest move.
Posted by: TKL | January 07, 2009 at 09:05 AM
Great charts on crazy gains since 11/20. Info available on biggest gainers going into 2000 market top and resulting losses in the ensuing bear? I would expect it to be the inverse....those stocks having the biggest bull market gains have the biggest declines when the market turns down.
Posted by: Jack D | January 13, 2009 at 02:23 PM