The Baltic Dry Index gained another 1% today, which makes seven up days in a row. Since bottoming in December, the index has formed a nice uptrend, gaining over 50%. Longer term, however, the index's highs from last Spring are still a long ways off. While the index bottomed on December 5th with a 94.4% decline from its all-time high of 11,793, at its current level of 1,014, it is still down 91.4% from its May 20th high. In order to get back to those highs, the index would have to rally an additional 1,063%. Hey, you have to start somewhere.
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yea I keep watching this too. I read a piece a few months back that said the BDI was the only index to watch. That's proabably a stretch. But seems like some ships, idle for Nov/Dec, are being engaged again. Though a recent remeinder of the new ships entering the market can't be good for shipping rates. Yes, gotta start somewhere. Thanks!
Posted by: Tahoe | January 28, 2009 at 10:53 AM
The problem with using this as an indicator is that you aren't measuring shipments, just the cost of shipping. Unless you are in the shipping, or shipbuilding, business, who cares really?
A better indicator of supply/demand is to look at inventories. Here's copper:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Check out the 30 day LME stocks. Doesn't look so good.
Posted by: Bob_in_MA | January 29, 2009 at 10:02 AM