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Greg Feirman

LOL - these guys are great contrary indicators!

Erik

hey guys,

check out the relative performance chart of the transports to the s&P. i have it here on my site. that 741 low doesn't appear to be "THE" low of this leg.

tradepostings.blogspot.com

love the research, i am a subscriber.

here's another site of mine with a bit more humor. is ben bernanke charles ponzi's lovechild?

guidepostings.blogspot.com

thanks again for all the work.

Richard Shaw

That is a very nice chart. Thank you.

No way to tell if they will be as wrong on the downside as the upside, but analysts do tend to extrapolate trends too far.

The current market price for oil is approximately at the 10-year monthly simple moving average price.

The last time oil was at $30 was approx. Dec 1, 2004. It spent a lot of time in the 20 to 32 area in 2000-2004; so $30 may not be unrealistic.

On the other hand, once economies eventually begin to recover, the reported $70+ deep sea finding and lifting cost may be more of a central value.

Richard Shaw

That is a very nice chart. Thank you.

No way to tell if they will be as wrong on the downside as the upside, but analysts do tend to extrapolate trends too far.

The current market price for oil is approximately at the 10-year monthly simple moving average price.

The last time oil was at $30 was approx. Dec 1, 2004. It spent a lot of time in the 20 to 32 area in 2000-2004; so $30 may not be unrealistic.

On the other hand, once economies eventually begin to recover, the reported $70+ deep sea finding and lifting cost may be more of a central value.

Simple Life

dont really think oil will go lower than 30$.
here is my reason:
- cost of making a barrel is very high( transportation, barrel container)
- at 30$, all oil sand projects will stop. pushing the supply down,

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