Yesterday, we asked Bespoke readers how low they thought the Dow would get between now and 2009. The number that received the most responses was 6,000. Of the 675 readers who participated in the poll, 215 (32%) said 6,000 would be the low, 167 (25%) said 7,000 would be the low, and 108 (16%) said 5,000 would be the low. To reach 6,000, the Dow would have to fall another 22% from yesterday's close, and it would be down 57.74% from its record high reached in October 2007.
Your question was will the dow reach "between now and the END of 2009", so that includes all of next year (2009)... not between "now and 2009" which would only include this and next month. So, which is it? I voted how the question was originally asked.
Posted by: Ted | November 21, 2008 at 01:02 PM
I still think that no option given to a HIGHER close in '09 raises the probability this is the path of least resistance...
Posted by: Tom Chechatka | November 21, 2008 at 01:08 PM
Tom,
We like your bullishness, but it's mathematically impossible for the low of the Dow between now and the end of 2009 to be HIGHER than its current level. Therefore, we couldn't make a HIGHER close an option.
Posted by: Justin | November 21, 2008 at 02:10 PM
wroooooooong!!
Posted by: rööt | November 21, 2008 at 05:09 PM
Throwing out the outliers the market will bottom at 7500 or 5000.
I would feel much more comfortable had there been several thousand respondents. Personally I voted 7500 based on this being a 1974 redux.
Posted by: Pathrick Neid | November 22, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Distribution looks about right considering how much fear there is out there. DJIA won't go lower than 6,000.
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Posted by: ケアプロスト | July 27, 2010 at 03:22 AM
Well, I had estimated that Dow would low to 5000, but I guess I didn't have many reasons to say that, did I?
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