Contracts on Intrade.com for who will be the Republican VP nominee have shifted significantly this morning. As of about 10 minutes ago, Romney's contract was trading well above 70, but fell dramatically as news broke on Drudge that he wouldn't be McCain's pick. Alaska governor Sarah Palin's contract, on the other hand, was trading under 5, but spiked to 80. Intrade is supposed to get it right because of the "wisdom of crowds" and people "putting their money where their mouth is," but this time the crowd has seemingly gotten it extremely wrong (although it's not a done deal yet). Intrade, while still a useful tool for those wanting to trade various events, is proving to be more of a "follower's market" instead of a "prediction market." If you want to see where people are currently putting the odds for an event to occur, Intrade is a good gauge of sentiment, but banking on it to get the eventual outcomes right is hit or miss.
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