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It appears that individuals have been more accurate, as the institutions have been getting more positive since October 2007, and individuals more negative. Maybe they felt the economic pain more quickly, and that is getting reflected in the market.

Jody Wilson

I agree with Mark. If I'm reading these graphs correctly, individuals were more optimistic from mid-2004 to mid-2005, and they were correct. Individuals also made the better call in late 2006.

The optimism of institutions rose to meet the individuals in early 2007, just when 1-year optimism became the wrong call!

More generally, I don't trust surveys like these. People and institutions aren't necessarily going to put their mouths where their moneys are. In fact, it might make sense for an institution to give opposite answers in a survey in order to confuse rivals.

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