Along with their monthly survey of various economic indicators, Bloomberg also asks economists what they think the odds of a recession are in the next year. Below we highlight all of the responses for each of the past three months. As shown, economists have been increasing their expectations of a recession as the months have passed this year. Back in January, the consensus was looking for a 40% chance of a recession. In February, the odds stood at 51.5%, and this month they ticked higher to 56.5%.
The odds from economists are still lower than the odds that futures contracts are predicting at Intrade. Below we highlight the historical chart of the Intrade contract for a recession along with the consensus economist estimate each month. As shown, traders putting their money where their mouth is have higher expectations than economists do.
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