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Cover-indicator studies are not good indicators. I could find as many cover stories as you want, that did not prove any change in the market direction.
With homebuilders up 54% and no trace of bottoming yet, I would expect them to correct down at least another 20% before thinking about getting into these guys. Oil, infation and more turmoil is ahead.


I agree, we just happen to notice more when covers are dead wrong.

The mortgage problem is like a slow margin call. It takes a while to unwind because no one checks the value of your house each day. Eventually, over a period of one or two years, people will get a good sense of how much trouble they're in.

White Knight

In truth, I was quite impressed with some of your earlier analysis. But now, we are talking in different directions. From where I sit, there appears to be (a) considerable overbuild of commercial property about to unwind; (b) billions of dollars in Alt-A mortgages that will collapse shortly; (c) billions of dollars in credit card debt that will collapse shortly; (d) billions of dollars in Option-ARM mortgages that will collapse shortly; (e) trillions of dollars in derivatives securitized by a thru d that will collapse as a consequence of their collapse; (f) ...
Well you get the picture. Hmmmm, no. maybe you don't. Where are the loans going to come from to sustain the consumers' debt binge which has been sustaining the US economy?

There were several dead-cat bounces in the market during the dot.com collapse. There will, no doubt be a few, in the meltdown.
You have recently been posting great analyses that look backwards. What happened to the ones focused on the future?


Respectfully, are you kidding me?

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