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I'm not going to defend Greenspan the forecaster, but I think the ARM accusation is a bum rap. I discussed this, quoting at length from Bob McTeer, last September. http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2007/09/getting-it-righ.html

The speech was about a pricing model, not market timing. It did not get presented to consumers as advice. Most people know about the "advice" only by reading the many Greenspan critics.

As McTeer put it,

"Somehow, I doubt the chairman's geek speak sent Joe Six-pack running off to apply for an ARM he couldn't afford."


I remember that Greenspan comment like it were yesterday... It came in fact as I was running to my mortgage broker to lock in a 30-year fixed refinance about as fast as I could. I mean, this was a time of interest rates at half-century lows!

How Greenspan could have suggested or even said that still to this day remains beyond me... It was a multi-generational low-water mark and he postulated to go floating.

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I would say that the levels of oil price will keep increasing. I agree with that. On the other hand, don't you think that we should start looking for some other way to produce our energy, considering that oil will not last forever.

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