2008 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue: It's Research!

We've all heard of the Super Bowl Indicator, but have you ever heard of the Swimsuit Issue Indicator?  Over the last 30 years, an American has appeared on the cover of the annual Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue in 15 different years.  The average performance of the S&P 500 during those 15 years is a gain of 13.9% with 13 positive years (87%).  Of the fifteen years where no American appeared on the cover, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of only 7.2% with 11 positive years (73%).  In the table below, we highlight the native country of the model appearing on each year's issue as well as the performance of the S&P 500 that year.

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Comments

[JP]

This was the data I was waiting for to jump back into the market! Can you do a breakdown of blondes vs. brunettes?

[Oli]

I knew, that THIS was the reason :)
Despite Buffett destroying the bond insurers ;)

[Geoff]

This fallacious "indicator" is a classical application of the birthday paradox. It stems from the fact that proponents of these types of indicators have the luxury of ignoring all data sets that don't correspond to the positive performance of the S&P. It is trivial to generate any number of these. Just find large sets of data that have annual events recorded. Weather data, billboard charts, sporting scores, etc. Now simply discard all of the data sets that don't match the . The data sets that are left will be "indicators" of that event. Better indicators of S&P performance are events that are actually causally related (at least in theory) AND show a strong statistical correlation to the performance of that index.

[GTS]

Going long Acme Rocket Shoes after reading this article.

[Jack M.]

A lot of Czechs....I didnt realize

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I love blog, because any person can blog in their own feelings and to share things with. But i suppose the blog could only be improved if you posted more often.

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Thank you for all the great posts from last year! I look forward to reading your blog, because they are always full of information that I can put to use. Thank you again, and God bless you in future.

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I'm sorry for the strange and out of topic comment, but don't you think that this girl in the cover is absolutely beautiful. Yes!

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Here's a picture of the production, especially after she was very good, can put things perfect show the true!