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John Kissinger

you show the dot.com recession as two bear markets broken by a brief (three month!) bull market. It is far more instructive to see this as a single bear market with a suckers rally in the middle, and with a total decline of 50%.
The question, then, is how does the current market compare with the dot.com crash, which really affected only one regional market, the bay area? The consumer is broke, housing is likely to go down another 20%, defaults have only just begun, monoliners and other insurers are toast and the IB's will have to take all this toxic waste back onto their balance sheet, smaller banks are already restricting existing lines of credit to companies, commodity producers are toast, too, and asia's bubble is popping next. IMO the dot.com was nothing like this...

Useful, however, to consider that the market likely has another 15% to go before a major rally is likely to take hold.

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