« Divergences in Wants and Expectations | Main | High Yield Spreads: Up, Up, and Away »



It's correct that there will be two more revisions.
"Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data."

Do not forget, however, that there comprehensive revisions conducted approximately every five years and likely due in 2008.

The BEA published new estimates (comprehensive) for 2001 only in 2003 and then the NBER has to change its definition to recession with which not everybody agrees. For example, decreasing employment is usually accompanied by increasing productivity. What is better?

Accuracy of quarterly revisions is well described in:
Reliability of the NIPA Estimates of U.S. Economic Activity
By Dennis J. Fixler and Bruce T. Grimm

They are not too much accurate - mean absolute revision is around 1%. Important is that current estimate (advanced, preliminary, final) contains no information on next revision.

The comments to this entry are closed.


Our View

Bespoke Premium

In The News

Premium Site

  • Morning Lineup
  • Short Interest
  • Upgrades/Downgrades
  • Sector Snapshot
  • Daily ETF Trends
  • Weekly Review
  • Economic Indicators
  • Trade of the Day
  • Bespoke Stock Scores
  • Daily Market Model
  • Daily Strategy
  • Daily Stock Odds
  • Market Studies