There's a clear dislocation between what Bespoke readers want the Fed to do and what they think the Fed will do when they decide on the direction of rates tomorrow. As shown below, the majority of respondents to our Fed poll think the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps tomorrow. This differs from the 29% that want the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps. The leading response to our "want" question is actually for the Fed to leave rates the same at 5.25%.
The above results make us wonder what leading economists actually want the Fed to do as well. As shown from their estimates below, the majority of them are in agreement with Bespoke readers that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. Do most of them want the Fed to leave rates the same as well? And if that is true, does the Fed really want to leave rates the same even though they think everyone wants a cut even though everyone doesn't want a cut? Kind of sounds like middle school gossip to us.
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