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David Merkel

I have an answer to what I last posted. The R-squared of the regression of the the 3- and 10-year treasury yield versus the 12-month forward total returns on the S&P 500 was nearly zero (2.7%). T-stats were significant, but opposite of the way that I forecast.

That said, I bumped into another relationship regarding the shape of the yield curve and trailing P/Es. I'll be posting on that in the near term.

David Merkel

Oh, one other note, my time period was April 1954 to the present.

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