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j arp

Gee, wasn't AAII sentiment pretty bearish in March 2000? Try extending the chart back a bit. Everybody thinks they're a contrarian. Retail investors don't have to chase, Money Market Funds pay 5%, with 100% principal repayment, compared to 1.8% yield on stocks with a chance of 50% principal recovery.


March '00 saw some HUGE S&P moves around the 1500 level; 15-20 pt daily moves were common - w/ a blow-off(?) mid-month 70 pt upday. Bulls then hit 65.7%, Bears were 20%. The next week, we had the all-time intraday high of 1553, then bled-off 50 points fairly quickly. That brought Bulls down to 38.9%, while Bears hit the 50% you refer to. So, not quite the spread we see this week, while it also immediately followed a more volatile period and a down move.

So, in my opinion, the March '00 period was different, and the Bull/Bear #s in response to it were different.

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