Part of Bespoke's presentation method is to display complex data and multiple variables in a way that allows investors to easily interpret the information. Below we highlight historical price and p/e ratio charts of the ten S&P 500 sectors. As a guide, the dark blue line is the price, the green line is the p/e ratio, and the green shading represents the trading "area" or range of the sector. The area of the sector's price is two standard deviations above and below its 50-day moving average. The price is neutral when trading within this area, but when it moves above or below the area it becomes overbought or oversold.
As the charts show, every sector is currently trading above or at the top of its trading area. Many p/e ratios have been expanding recently as prices move higher. Exceptions include consumer staples and discretionary, financials and materials. Surprisingly, the sector currently with the highest p/e ratio is health care.
Great charts!
If you subscribe to the notion(like I do) that we are in a secular bull market for commodities, then you have to expected P/E
contraction. I did some work that shows several time last centutry, when P/E contracted by two-thirds.They where all associated with rising commodities prices.
This study would suggest a P/E in the low teens for the S&P. See "Financial vs Tangible assets" (April archives)
wrahal.blogspot.com
Posted by: will rahal | May 06, 2007 at 10:17 AM
Here is the link fot the P/E analysis when
Commodities are increasing in prices:http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2007/04/financial-paper-vs-tangible-assets.html
Posted by: will rahal | May 06, 2007 at 04:57 PM