Bespoke's Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC's Squawk on the Street today at 10:30 AM ET to discuss the Dogs of the Dow. For thise who missed it, a link to the segment is provided below.
Bespoke's research and commentary has been featured in many articles recently, and below we provide links to a few of them. The articles are interesting and informative regardless of our inclusion, so check them out if you have time. Most of the stuff attributed to us comes from the reports we send out to Bespoke Premium members, so please click here if you would like to subscribe.
"Why the Rally Should Keep Rolling...for Now." Kopin Tan, Barron's - 7/27/09:
HERE'S A SNAPSHOT OF JULY'S ROMP, courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group: From their July 10 low, the 50 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 had rebounded 17.2% through Thursday, outgunning the 50 biggest stocks' 9.7% gain. The 50 most heavily shorted stocks have jumped 17.6%, versus just 8.8% for the 50 least-shorted names. Companies raking in foreign revenues outran domestic earners, a sign that traders are still uneasy about the dollar.
Besides short-covering, there are also ample signs of bargain-hunting and risk-guzzling. The 50 stocks with the lowest price/earnings ratios jumped 18.4%, the best performance of any decile. The 50 stocks with the worst analyst ratings are up 12.7%, versus 8.9% for the most beloved companies. And the 50 stocks that fell the furthest during the June correction have bounced back most resoundingly, their 17.4% rise trumping the 7.4% for the correction's top performers.
"Stock Trading Slowdown Is Steepest in Two Decades." Kayla Carrick, Bloomberg News - 7/24/09.
"Pundit Watch: Is the Rally Sustainable?" Dan Burrows, SmartMoney - 7/27/09:
So far the rate of upside earnings surprises is "off the charts," writes Paul Hickey, founder of Bespoke Investment Group. True, we still have a long way to go through the current earnings season, but nearly 71% of companies reporting have beaten estimates. "Investors were worried heading into this earnings season that last quarter's numbers would be difficult to top, causing the market to struggle," he says. "However, the current earnings season has come in much stronger than last quarter so far."
"Six Takeaways on the Rally: 'Panic In,' Short Covering or Both?" Matt Phillips, WSJ - 7/23/09:
Paul Hickey, co-founder Bespoke Investment Group, via email: “The last time the Dow closed above 9,000 was on January 6th. To put this rally in perspective, we would still have to rally by nearly 27% just to get to the levels we were at prior to the Lehman bankruptcy. With so many market and economic indicators reaching pre-Lehman levels, one has to ask will the market be next?”
"Mr. Mo Meets Stock Market." David Kamm, News-Press.com - 7/26/09:
The highly respected Bespoke Investment Group recently published a study of equity performance during the last 11 positive markets. It is titled "Sector Performance (%) During Prior S&P Bull Markets: 1940-2007" and is somewhat surprising in spots. They caution that all bull markets are not alike, and we should look more strongly at the periods we think could be more closely correlated with the next one. That requires an evaluation on our part, but that's how we gain an edge.
The Bespoke quick glance reveals the following; "Technology is usually a leader during bulls, while Telecom and Utilities are laggards. Energy, Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Materials have scattered performance during various bulls, while Industrials are usually in the middle of the pack every time." The top four sectors (ranked by Bespoke) in the 2002-2007 bull were: energy, utilities, materials, and technology.
Bespoke had the feature interview with Lawrence Strauss in this week's Barron's. You can view the interview here, or you can pick up a copy at your local newsstand. For Barron's readers visiting the site for the first time -- welcome! To learn more about Bespoke, please visit www.bespokepremium.com.
To view the interview, please click on the image below. If you would like to access the report discussed in the interview, subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.
Bespoke Investment Group was featured in the latest issue of BusinessWeek in an article highlighting the best sources of independent research for investors. In the article titled "The Equity Research Shortfall," Aaron Pressman writes that "there's solid information out there if you know where to look." An excerpt of the article is provided below:
Paul Hickey and Justin Walters left Birinyi Associates, the money management and analysis outfit of former Salomon Brothers stock trader Laszlo Birinyi, to found Web-based research firm Bespoke Investment Group in May 2007. Along with a free blog, Hickey and Walters offer a $365 annual premium research service that includes daily reports on key market indicators as well as stock and sector picks and pans.
For example, after a huge runup in the prices of coal industry stocks in the spring of 2008, Bespoke issued a June 19 warning that the sector was poised to fall based on excessively high price-earnings ratios. "It's hard not to shake your head at these charts and realize that someone is going to get burned," the pair wrote. Since then the sector has plunged, with the Van Eck Market Vectors Coal exchange-traded fund off 75% in the past six months, vs. a 30% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Most recently, Bespoke moved its model portfolio to 95% equities from 70% cash on Nov. 20. The S&P 500 is up 21% since.
Thanks to BusinessWeek and Aaron Pressman for the nice writeup! To learn more about the Premium service mentioned in the article and to subscribe for just $1 per day, please visit www.BespokePremium.com.
Bespoke's work on international revenues was featured in the 12/26/08 Ahead of the Tape column by Scott Patterson in the Wall Street Journal. A subscription is required to view the entire article, but below is a brief excerpt:
One of the smartest plays for investors in the past few years was to invest in companies with lots of exposure to fast-growing overseas economies in Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere, while going light on those doing most of their business in slowpoke U.S.
That trend might start reversing soon. Indeed, it already has to a small extent, though for now it is more a matter of which group is performing less badly. Stocks of companies that book more than 50% of their revenue overseas are down 46% this year, compared with the decline of 38% in companies with no international revenue, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
"The theory was that these companies were benefiting from the globalization of trade," said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke. "That whole theory is going out the window now."
Sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary and health care get less than 30% of revenue overseas. The technology sector is among the most exposed, with an average of 50% of company revenue coming from outside North America.
Many investors come to Bespoke when they're looking for the percentage of revenues that a company generates outside of the US. Our International Revenues Database contains this information for all companies in the Russell 1,000 and the S&P 500. To access the database, you have to be a yearly subscriber to Bespoke Premium. Click here to sign up today.
Bespoke's research was featured in the cover story of Barron's over the weekend as well as Bloomberg's widely followed Chart of the Day column. Click the links below to read the articles.
Barron's: That Was Way Too Close For Comfort
Bloomberg: Biggest Bubble of Them All Is Globalization
To view the reports featured in these articles, subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.
For those interested, one of Bespoke's recent Premium reports was featured in the Barron's cover story this weekend by Randall Forsyth. Please click the link below to view the article.
Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.
Below we highlight some of the articles using Bespoke's research over the last week.
"Stocks Accentuate the Positive -- to End Flat" -- Kopin Tan, Barron's (6/16/08)
"Crude Oil Falls as Naimi Says Record Prices Are 'Unjustified'" -- Mark Shenk, Bloomberg.com (6/13/08)
"Dow Stock Index Falls Nearly 400 Points on Oil, Jobs News" -- Walter Hamilton, LA Times (6/7/08)
"Not the Worst of All Financial Worlds, But Bad Enough" -- Randall Forsyth, Barron's (6/12/08)
"Oil, Dollar Traders Feed Each Other Crude Lines" -- John Authors, Financial Times (6/14/08)
Bespoke's work appeared in a feature article on the US Dollar in Barron's on April 26th. Please click here to view the article. Our work on oil bull and bear markets was also mentioned in Kopin Tan's The Trader column in Barron's. Below is an excerpt from the article:
AS REGULAR READERS KNOW, this column is a fan of the always timely research from Bespoke Investment Group, and crude oil pushing $119 last week prompted its analysts to wade through the current gush.
Crude has enjoyed 22 bull markets since 1986, defined as a rally of 20% or more coming after a 20% decline. The average bull market lasted 242 days and racked up gains of 67.85%. So the current bull run is twice as long and twice as strong, with crude having risen more than 136% over 463 days since its lull on Jan. 18, 2007.
What happens when this raging, aging bull eventually tires? The average bear market saw a 32% oil-price drop over 125 days. When that happened, the boost to disposable income was welcome news for consumer-discretionary companies, lifting their stocks by an average 10.07%. Other standouts in an oil bear market include consumer staples (up an average 9.74%), financials (9.45%), transports (9%) and industrials (7.34%). They all outpaced the S&P 500's 5.74% gain when oil retreated.
In contrast, utilities rose just 3.46% in an oil bear market, while technology stocks -- which attract investors by being less directly affected by high oil -- gained just 3.17%. The energy sector fell 1.47%.
"Energy stocks that have gone up the most during the current oil rally will probably get hit the hardest," Bespoke analysts note. With gains of between 120% and 158% since January 2007, stocks like Consol Energy (CNX), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Range Resources (RRC) and Hess (HES) have milked the most from this oil gush, and might have the most to lose when oil subsides.
Bespoke's Paul Hickey appeared on Yahoo's Tech Ticker on 3/27 with Aaron Task. Among the topics discussed was the correlation between stocks and bond yields since the S&P 500 peaked in October. Click play below to view the appearance.
Bespoke co-founders Paul Hickey and Justin Walters were recently interviewed and featured in Stocks and Commodities magazine, a popular publication for traders and investors alike. Big thanks to Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan and S&C magazine for choosing Bespoke for their feature interview this month. You have to be a Stocks and Commodities subscriber to view the interview in its entirety, but the introduction can be found here.
Bespoke's Justin Walters appeared on Bloomberg TV at 8:10 AM ET on February 21st. Later that day, Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC's Street Signs with Erin Burnett at 2 PM ET. We both discussed recent B.I.G. Tips reports on commodities, stocks and ETFs.
Colin Barr of Fortune recently published an article on the homebuilders that mentioned some of Bespoke's work. Click here to view the entire article. Below we provide an excerpt with Bespoke's input:
"Stocks are predictive of the industry about six to nine months ahead of time," says Justin Walters of Bespoke Investment Group in Harrison, N.Y. He says he is bullish on the sector, noting that house-price futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have been forecasting a bottom in house prices in many U.S. markets toward the end of 2008.
Walters says the recent rally in the homebuilders stands out from past stock moves because volume has been so much heavier. He adds that this year's bounce in the homebuilders follows a pattern laid out in the collapse of the tech bubble back in 2000. Walters says the steep decline in these stocks - despite the recent rally, the XHB is down 48% from a year ago - has made the sector look attractive even if more declines are ahead for housing prices.
Perhaps the most bullish signal comes from the executive suites at homebuilders such as Hovnanian. In a recent post on the Bespoke Investment Group Web site, Walters and colleague Paul Hickey note that a few homebuilder insiders have started buying their own stock - a marked contrast to the heavy insider selling at marquee names such as Toll Brothers that marked the group's 2005 top.
"While some may argue that that homebuilders don't do a very good job building houses," Hickey and Walters write, "one thing they know how to do well is trade their own stocks."
Bespoke's Justin Walters appeared on Bloomberg TV at 9:10 AM ET this morning. Justin spoke about a Bespoke Premium report sent out yesterday that highlighted the market's typical reaction on the day following a large down day.
Below we highlight articles that have mentioned Bespoke's work since we last posted on December 24th.
A Wild Ride Into Uncertainty - Tom Petruno, LA Times - 1/1/08
5-Year Winning Streak Has A Good Shot At A 6th - Adam Shell, USA Today - 1/2/08
A Not-So Bullish Start to '08 - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 1/3/08
The Bull: What's to Be Its Fate in '08 - Kopin Tan, Barron's - 12/31/07
Stock Bulls' Five Cheers - Scott Patterson, WSJ - 1/2/08
Wien Predicts Recession, Stock 'Correction' in US - Michael Patterson, Bloomberg - 1/2/08
Gold ETFs Skyrocket As Investors Tumble - CNNMoney.com - 1/8/08
What Surprises Will 2008 Have In Store? - FT.com - 1/7/08
Election Year May Not Be Good To Investors - MSNBC.com - 1/9/08
Below we highlight articles that have mentioned Bespoke's work since we last posted on December 6th.
For Investors, A Roadmap to Risk in '08 - David Gaffen, WSJ - 12/24/07
There's Still Time For Stocks' Santa Rally - Adam Shell, USA Today - 12/24/07
Time to Let the Dogs Out - Mike Hogan, Barron's - 12/24/07
Analysts Botch Profit Forecasts on Home Turf - Scott Patterson, WSJ - 12/17/07
Stocks Rally When US Economy Slows to Less Than 1% - Eric Martin and Michael Tsang, Bloomberg - 12/10/07
Stock Pickers May Get New Respect as Market Unbundles - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 12/21/07
Outlook '08: Spread The Risk In Your Portfolio - Jennifer Woods, CNBC - 12/10/07
US Stocks Gain as Jobs Growth Tops Forecast - Michael Patterson, Bloomberg - 12/7/07
AT&T and Texas Bring Cheer Amid Rate Cut Speculation - Chris Bryant and Anora Mahmudova, Financial Times - 12/12/07
US Stocks Fall After Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by Quarter Point - Eric Martin, Bloomberg - 12/11/07
Rate Cut May Help Overall Confidence - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 12/12/07
Santa Claus Came Early in 2007, May Not Return - Spencer Jakab, Dow Jones - 12/19/07
Below we highlight recent articles mentioning Bespoke's work. If you would like to receive Bespoke's unique market research, please subscribe to Bespoke Premium.
Market Stands "Corrected" - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 11/27/07
Investors Hope "Correction" Is Routine, Will Be Over Soon - Matt Krantz, USA Today - 11/27/07
Tech Your Pick From the Hottest Stocks - Jennifer Ablan, Reuters - 11/24/07
Will the Thanksgiving Turkey Rally, Fly or Flop? - John Heinzl, The Globe and Mail - 11/20/07
US Stocks Rise, Led by Technology Shares - Michael Patterson, Bloomberg - 12/5/07
US Stock Futures Point to Rebound From Market's 10% Decline - Michael Patterson and Alexis Xydias, Bloomberg - 11/27/07
Investors Plot Action As They Follow The Market's Health - Nancy Trejos, The Washington Post - 12/2/07
Investors Rolling With The Punches - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 11/22/07
Investors Cool to US Multinationals - Francesco Guerrera, Financial Times - 11/23/07
Japan's Topix Stock Index's Drop Signals Bear Market - Elizabeth Stanton and Toshiro Hasegawa, Bloomberg - 11/22/07
Mood Swing Brings a High - Bill Barnhart, Chicago Tribune - 11/29/07
Short Answer Won't Be Enough to Save Weak Markets - John Heinzl, The Globe and Mail - 11/30/07