Bespoke Investment Group

2009 Bespoke Reader Outlook

With 2009 fast approaching, we have created our annual Bespoke reader survey in hopes of obtaining the consensus views of Think B.I.G. followers.  We ask that you please provide us with the country and state (if USA) that you live in so we can track any regional discrepancies as well.  From the stock market to oil to the economy, we've covered a wide array of investment topics, and we'll share the results right at the start of 2009.

And as an appreciation for your participation in the survey as well as your continued support of our site, we will give the two individuals with the closest guesses (above or below) to the "where will the Dow close on the last trading day of 2008" question a Bespoke tie from Vineyard Vines.  We recently had the popular Vineyard Vines ties custom made with the Bespoke logo on them as shown at right.  These ties are awesome, and one can be yours if you're the most prescient survey respondent.

To be eligible to receive the tie, we'll need your actual email address, but if you do not wish to give your email (even though we don't do anything with them), you can enter noemail@bespokepremium.com. 

Thanks for participating, and be sure to visit www.bespokepremium.com to subscribe to our renowned research service for just $1/day.

In what country do you currently reside? * Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antarctica Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahama Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Bouvet Island Brazil British Indian Ocean Territory British Virgin Islands Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Chile China Christmas Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands Colombia Comoros Congo Cook Iislands Costa Rica Cote D'ivoire (Ivory Coast) Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic East Timor Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Falkland Islands (Malvinas) Faroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Guiana French Polynesia French Southern Territories Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Gibraltar Greece Greenland Grenada Guadeloupe Guam Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Heard & McDonald Islands Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iraq Ireland Islamic Republic of Iran Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Republic of Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lao People's Democratic Republic Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macau Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Martinique Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia Moldova, Republic of Monaco Mongolia Monserrat Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Niue Norfolk Island Northern Mariana Islands Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Pitcairn Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Reunion Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Saint Lucia Samoa San Marino Sao Tome & Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands Spain Sri Lanka St. Helena St. Kitts and Nevis St. Pierre & Miquelon St. Vincent & the Grenadines Sudan Suriname Svalbard & Jan Mayen Islands Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syrian Arab Republic Taiwan, Province of China Tajikistan Tanzania, United Republic of Thailand Togo Tokelau Tonga Trinidad & Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks & Caicos Islands Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom (Great Britain) United States Minor Outlying Islands United States of America United States Virgin Islands Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Vatican City State Venezuela Vietnam Wallis & Futuna Islands Western Sahara Yemen Yugoslavia Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe If USA, in what state do you currently reside? * AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY -Terr.- AS FM GU MI PR VI What percentage of your liquid assets are currently invested in stocks? Where will the Dow close on the last trading day of 2008 (currently at 8,579)? Where will the Dow close on the last trading day of 2009 (currently at 8,579)? Where will oil close on the last trading day of 2009 (currently at $33.87)? Where will gold close on the last trading day of 2009 (currently at $836.90)? Where will the 10-Year Treasury yield close on the last trading day of 2009 (currently at 2.12%)? Will the national median home price be higher or lower than its current level at the end of 2009? Higher Lower Will the economy be out of its recession by the end of 2009? Yes No - we will still be in a recession No - we will be in a depression Will the US Dollar index be up or down in 2009? Up Down Which sector will perform best in 2009? What is your favorite individual stock for 2009? E-mail Address: * * Required

Dow 6,000?

Yesterday, we asked Bespoke readers how low they thought the Dow would get between now and 2009.  The number that received the most responses was 6,000.  Of the 675 readers who participated in the poll, 215 (32%) said 6,000 would be the low, 167 (25%) said 7,000 would be the low, and 108 (16%) said 5,000 would be the low.  To reach 6,000, the Dow would have to fall another 22% from yesterday's close, and it would be down 57.74% from its record high reached in October 2007.

 

How Low Will It Go?

With the end of this epic free-fall seemingly nowhere in sight, we want to know how bad Bespoke readers think things are going to get.  The Dow is currently trading at 7,777.  What will the low of the Dow be between now and the end of 2009?  Please let us know by taking part in the poll below.  We'll report back with the results in a few days.

What will the low of the Dow be between now and the end of 2009?
	7,500
	7,000
	6,000
	5,000
	4,000
	3,000
	2,000
	1,000
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Monday's Rally Poll Results

After more than 800 of you voted, the results to yesterday's poll regarding the market's rally show that the majority of Bespoke's readers are bearish on the market's prospects for the rest of the month.  When asked whether the S&P 500 would finish the month of October higher or lower than Monday's (10/13) close, 51.3% of you said it would close lower, while 48.7% said it would close higher.

Was Today's Rally For Real?

Online Surveys & Market Research

Cast your vote and let us know what you think.  We'll post the results tomorrow.

Guess The Dow With Bespoke's Prediction Poll

Where do you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close on August 8th?  Please enter your prediction by taking part in the poll below.  Predictions must be in by this Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!

Where will the DJIA close on Friday, August 8th? E-mail Address: * * Required

Prediction Poll Results

Just a quick post on the results from this week's Dow Prediction Poll.  The average poll respondent predicted that the Dow will close this Friday at 11,473.49, which is 23 points below the Dow's current level of 11,496.57.  After we finally saw some gains last week, the collective response to our poll is slightly negative for this week.

Where Will The Dow Close Next Friday?

The winner of last week's Bespoke Prediction Poll guessed that the Dow would close the week at 11,498.00 -- just 0.01% percent from today's actual close of 11,496.57.  Congratulations to Jason Meshnick for the winning prediction and receiving one free month of the Bespoke Premium service!  Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Friday.  The index is currently trading at 11,496.57.  Predictions must be in by this Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!

Where will the DJIA close on Friday, July 25th? E-mail Address: * * Required

Below we provide the titles of the in-depth B.I.G. Tips reports we released this week.  If any spark your interest, they are all available to our Premium subscribers.  These are anticipatory, ahead-of-the-curve research reports that cover markets, economies, stocks, commodities, housing and anything else related to making people money.

This week's B.I.G. Tips reports: Week in Review (our widely followed weekly newsletter on the markets), Earnings Estimate Revisions (stocks with the biggest increases and decreases in analyst estimates), Stock Ratings (a look at the most and least loved stocks from the major financial websites), Earnings Season Update (key earnings season stats and the best and worst reports), Shorts Running Scared (most heavily shorted stocks go through the roof), Bank and Broker Matrix (updated charts of how financial companies are faring during the current credit crisis), Stocks Up, Oil Down (market performance following similar scenarios in the past), Earnings Beat Rates (comparing this quarter's earnings to past quarters), Oil Breaks Uptrend (more declines to come), S&P 500 In Flux (many stocks shouldn't even be in the index anymore), Retail Sales by Category (breaking down this month's retail sales report), Long-Term Sector Relative Strength (ominous signs for energy?), Sector Bear Markets (a look at average declines for sectors during bear markets).

Thanks for taking part in the Bespoke Prediction Poll!  If you'd like to try out our Premium service, please sign up at BespokePremium.com.

This Week's Prediction Poll Results

For those that wish to track the results of our Prediction Poll, below we highlight the individual responses from this week's poll along with the average of all participants.  As shown, the average of all predictions for where the Dow would finish the week was 11,183.  Based on the closing price of 11,100.54 last Friday, participants are looking for a gain of about 74 bps this week.  After we get a couple months worth of results, we'll post a historical chart of the weekly averages compared with the actual Dow.

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.

Where Will The Dow Close Next Friday?

The winner of last week's Bespoke Prediction Poll guessed that the Dow would close the week at 11,097.00 -- just 0.03% percent from today's actual close of 11,100.54.  Congratulations on the prediction and winning one free month of the Bespoke Premium service!  Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Friday.  The index is currently trading at 11,100.54.  Predictions must be in by this Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!

Where will the DJIA close on Friday, July 18th? E-mail Address: * * Required

Below we provide the titles of the in-depth B.I.G. Tips reports we released this week.  If any spark your interest, they are all available to our Premium subscribers.  These are anticipatory, ahead-of-the-curve research reports that cover markets, economies, stocks, commodities, housing and anything else related to making people money.

This week's B.I.G. Tips reports: Week in Review (our widely followed weekly newsletter on the markets), Earnings Estimate Revisions (stocks with the biggest increases and decreases in analyst estimates), Stock Ratings (a look at the most and least loved stocks from the major financial websites), Next Week's Earnings (a number of trade ideas for companies reporting earnings next week), Global Market Cycles (a look at bull and bear markets across the world), Big Reversal Days (market performance after big up days are followed by big down days), Investors Intelligence (a historical look at market performance when sentiment gets this low), S&P 500 Oversold Indicator (are we due for a rally?), Global Bank and Broker Matrix (an in-depth look at credit crisis measures for financial firms), Vix and Declines (does a low Vix mean further declines are to come?), Bespoke Earnings Scores (the top rated stocks for earnings season), Halfway There (a 60-page detailed analysis of what's to come in the second half of the year).

Thanks for taking part in the Bespoke Prediction Poll!  If you'd like to try out our Premium service, please sign up at BespokePremium.com.

Bespoke's July 4th Prediction Poll

The winner of last week's Bespoke Prediction Poll guessed that the Dow would close the week at 11,285.5 -- just 0.02% percent from today's actual close of 11,288.54.  Congratulations on the prediction and winning one free month of the Bespoke Premium service!  Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Friday.  The index is currently trading at 11,288.54.  Predictions must be in by this Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!

Where will the DJIA close on Friday, July 11th? E-mail Address: * * Required

Looking for some holiday reading?  Pick up our informative mid-year market report only available at Bespoke Premium. 

Second Half Bespoke Reader Expectations

After the worst first half for the Dow since 1970, there are lots of questions up in the air as to how things will play out in the last six months of 2008.  We want to know what Bespoke readers think will happen.  Please answer the questions below regarding the markets, oil, real estate and the election so we can get a sense of how investors are positioned for the second half.  We'll report back with the results in the coming days.  Thanks for participating!

Will the S&P 500 be higher or lower than it is now at the end of the year?
	Higher
	Lower
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Will the price of oil be higher or lower than it is now at the end of the year?
	Higher
	Lower
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Will Obama or McCain become the next US President?
	Obama
	McCain
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Will median home prices in the US be lower or higher than they are now at the end of the year?
	Higher
	Lower
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Bespoke's Prediction Poll and Last Week's Winner

The winner of last week's Bespoke Prediction Poll guessed that the Dow would close the week at 11,350 -- just 0.03% percent from today's actual close of 11,346.51.  Congratulations on the prediction and winning one free month of the Bespoke Premium service!  Please enter your prediction for where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close next Thursday (Friday is July 4th).  The index is currently trading at 11,346.51.  Predictions must be in by Sunday at midnight.  The person with the closest answer will receive one free month of the $40/month Bespoke Premium service.  Thanks for participating!

Where will the DJIA close on Thursday, July 3rd? E-mail Address: * * Required

For non-members of the Bespoke Premium service, we have recently begun issuing our Week in Review newsletter that provides a detailed look at the comings and goings in the financial world over the last week.  You can sign up to receive the Week in Review along with all of our other reports by visiting BespokePremium.com.  Please click the image below to view a previous Week in Review as an example.

Along with our Week in Review newsletter, below we provide the titles of the in-depth B.I.G. Tips reports we released this week.  If any spark your interest, they are all available to our Premium subscribers.  These are anticipatory, ahead-of-the-curve research reports that cover markets, economies, stocks, commodities, housing and anything else related to making people money. 

This week's B.I.G. Tips reports: Earnings Estimate Revisions (stocks with the biggest increases and decreases in analyst estimates), Stock Ratings (a look at the most and least loved stocks from the major financial websites), July 4th Trading (market performance in the week preceding and following July 4th), Big Down Days (market performance following down days similar to Thursday), International Revenues and the Weak Dollar (how have stocks with strong international revenues been holding up?), July Market Seasonality (typical market and stock performance in July), Housing Futures (which direction is real estate heading?), Fed Funds Days (how should the market perform following this week's rate decision?), Decile Analysis (which stock characteristics are moving stocks higher and lower?), Top Stock Technicals (our chart analysis of the top rated stocks), End of Quarter Window Dressing (which stocks should benefit the most and the least from this definite trend?).

Thanks for taking part in the Bespoke Prediction Poll!  If you'd like to try out our Premium service, please sign up at BespokePremium.com.

Bespoke Prediction Poll Results

We started our new weekly Prediction Poll last Friday and received nearly 200 reader responses over the weekend for where the Dow 30 would close this Friday the 27th.  Below we highlight the results from the poll, and as shown, the average of all predictions was 11,818.  The Dow closed at 11,873 on Friday, so that means the crowd is looking for the index to fall 55 points (or -0.46%) this week. 

Thanks to all who participated.  And remember, the person with the guess closest to the Dow's actual close on Friday will receive one free month of the Bespoke Premium research service.

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke.

Results of Bespoke's Reader Sentiment Poll

On Friday, we asked Bespoke readers to take part in a survey on whether or not the S&P 500 has seen its lows for the year.  After nearly 500 responses, the overwhelming majority has said no.  As shown below, 75% of participants think the S&P 500 has not yet seen its lows for the year.  From the results of this poll, investor sentiment remains bearish.

Subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.

Retest or New Leg Down?

The S&P 500 is now trading below its closing low for 2008.  Now that this level has broken, the next area of focus is the intraday low of 1,269.75 reached on January 23rd.  Is this a retest of the January lows, or the next leg down?  Please let us know by taking part in the poll below.

Bespoke Bears at Record High

   

As of mid week, the percentage of respondents that marked "Bearish" as their current view on the S&P 500 is at its highest level since the poll started in July.  Let us know what you think about the markets by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Bears in Charge

Bearish participants of the Bespoke Market Poll reached 59% last week, as the S&P 500 declined 2.44%.  This is the same level we reached on November 26th when the index made a short-term bottom.  Please take part in the poll below to let us know your current view on the S&P 500.  Remember, it doesn't matter if you are a short-term or long-term investor.  Simply respond based on whatever methodology you use.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Bespoke Readers Turn Slightly Bullish

Respondents to the Bespoke Market Poll turned bullish for the first time since the end of October, as the S&P 500 moved back above its 50-day moving average last week.  When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 51% of participants marked "Bullish" while 49% marked "Bearish."  With the FOMC meeting headlining the news this week, what is in store for equities going forward?  Please let us know by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Bespoke Readers Still Bearish

Bespoke bears retreated slightly last week, but they still remain above 50%.  When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 54% of participants marked "Bearish" while 46% marked "Bullish."  Will historical averages hold true to form this month, or will the declines get worse?  Please let us know by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

59% Are Bearish On The Market

Last week, 59% of Bespoke Market Poll participants marked "Bearish" as their current view on the S&P 500.  This is the highest "Bearish" reading since the 64% seen in mid-September.  The high "Bearish" number is surprising given the current results of our year-end market poll, which are much more positive.  Please let us know your current view of the S&P 500 by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

The Bespoke Bears Have Come Out

   

As of midweek, the percentage of Bespoke readers marking "Bearish" as their current view of the S&P 500 stands at 59%.  This is the highest level reached since the 64% "Bearish" level we saw on September 16th.

Remember, you can vote in the Bespoke Market Poll whenever you want as your thoughts change, so if you haven't participated, let us know what your current thoughts are on the S&P 500 in the poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Bespoke Readers Remain Slightly Bearish

Fifty-two percent of Bespoke Market Poll participants marked "Bearish" as their current view on the S&P 500 last week, while the index rose 35 bps from Monday through Friday.  Readers have remained fairly neutral since mid-October, highlighting the overall uncertainty of what is in store for stocks going forward.  Please help us form a consensus view by taking part in our poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

The Bears Come Out

Bearish sentiment rose to its highest levels since mid-September as the S&P 500 declined 3.71% last week.  When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 55% of respondents marked "Bearish" in the Bespoke Market Poll last week.  After another 5% correction from recent highs, is the market due for a snapback rally or more significant declines?  Please let us know by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Back and Forth From the Bulls and Bears

Bearish respondents outnumbered Bullish respondents last week when asked what their current view was on the S&P 500.  There has been quite a bit of back and forth action from the bulls and bears in recent weeks, with no clear cut sentiment standing out.  Please let us know what you think is in store for the markets going forward by taking part in the Bespoke Market Poll below.

My current view on the S&P 500 is:
	Bullish
	Bearish
Free polls from Pollhost.com