After Scott Brown's unlikely win last night for the open MA Senate seat, we checked Intrade to see which way the odds have moved for various political scenarios. After the special election, Intrade started up a new contract for whether "Obamacare" health care reform will pass before 6/30/10. The specifics of the contract are that either the House bill, Senate bill, or any combination of the two bills would have to pass for the contract to pay out. As shown in the first image below, the initial bid/offer stands at 25/30, so the odds are currently about 25% that a bill will pass by mid-2010.
The more stunning contract is whether or not the Democratic party will retain a majority in the House. After the election last night, the odds have moved down to 54% that the Dems will maintain House ownership, even with a 40-member lead.
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