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Doug Kass "picked" the bottom back in March. He went bearish late summer and has reiterated his bearish "I'm more heavily short than ever" with greater intensity as the market has risen.

He's now got his ego, emotion, and esteem involved in this second, arrow-in-the-air call.

When are people going to learn?


It will be interesting to show for companies that have been beating estimates, what the EPS forecast have been, say from beginning of this year. This will show for those beating estimates, on average, (1) whether the estimates have been revised upwards/downwards; (2) quantum of revision and (3) prior estimates vs actual.

Recalled Bespoke had shown EPS revisions for some of the financials eg GS, C recently.


Significantly lowered estimates result in positive earnings surprises.

This has been the fuel for the market so far this quarter and also the last two quarters (i.e., throughout the bull run of 2009.)

The interesting thing though is that most times a big company announces great earnings beating estimates (e.g., IBM, AXP, AA, etc.) the stock jumps higher, only to be sold into strength, and erase a good part of the gain.

Amazon and Apple (partially) are the two notable exceptions to the rule so far.

Yes, it is the typical selling into the strength of the good news, but it may ALSO indicate the market is topping short term.

Time will tell.

P.S. I get my market timing signals at http://invetrics.com



Great article. And you are one of the few sites that i can imagine posting such good work.

It's one of the reasons why i became a fan originally.

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