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David3

It would be interesting to run this series back through previous recessions.

Paul Hickey

David,

In the link in the post, we looked at declines of initial jobless claims from peaks. We also found that by the time jobless claims decline 15% from a peak, the recession has always been over.

Paul


David3

Thanks. Though it appears to be a lagging indicator, the mean duration of unemployment would further your point. We saw the first tick down during August.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN

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