Think B.I.G. Market Outlook 2009 Survey

On December 19th, we surveyed Think B.I.G. readers for their thoughts on various asset classes in 2009.  Below we provide the results of the survey.  As shown in the first table, respondents as a whole are bullish on stocks, oil, and gold, while they are bearish on Treasuries.  The average response for where the Dow would end 2009 was 9,082, which translates into a gain of 3.49% from the index's year-end 2008 level.  The average response for oil's 2009 finish was $56.76 (27% gain) and gold's was $1,011 (14.4% gain).  Survey respondents on average believe the 10-Year Treasury yield will finish 2009 at 2.99%, or 35% higher than its 2008 finish of 2.21%.

 

We also asked readers for their thoughts on housing, the recession, and the dollar.  In the first pie chart below, we show the results to our question on whether or not the US economy will be out of its recession by the end of 2009.  As shown, 51% still believe we'll be in a recession by the end of the year, and 12% believe we'll actually be in a depression! 

Respondents are also bearish on the US Dollar in 2009.  Of the 277 survey participants, 70% said the dollar would be down in 2009, while just 30% said it would be up.

Most participants aren't expecting housing to turn around in 2009 either.  As shown, 76% believe the National Median Home Price will finish 2009 lower than where it started.

The consensus results show that Think B.I.G. readers believe the economy will remain in the tank in 2009, but stock markets will be slightly higher.  Thanks to everyone who participated!