We all remember back in May when Goldman Sachs (GS) issued a report predicting that oil's "super spike" would likely send the commodity to $200 "over the next 6-24 months."
Seven months later, Goldman is now advising clients that "oil prices will fall to $30 a barrel in the next three months."
If the call for $30 oil is as accurate as the call for $200 oil, investors may want to fill up their gas tanks and lock in their heating oil prices asap.
LOL - these guys are great contrary indicators!
Posted by: Greg Feirman | December 15, 2008 at 11:56 AM
hey guys,
check out the relative performance chart of the transports to the s&P. i have it here on my site. that 741 low doesn't appear to be "THE" low of this leg.
tradepostings.blogspot.com
love the research, i am a subscriber.
here's another site of mine with a bit more humor. is ben bernanke charles ponzi's lovechild?
guidepostings.blogspot.com
thanks again for all the work.
Posted by: Erik | December 15, 2008 at 12:07 PM
That is a very nice chart. Thank you.
No way to tell if they will be as wrong on the downside as the upside, but analysts do tend to extrapolate trends too far.
The current market price for oil is approximately at the 10-year monthly simple moving average price.
The last time oil was at $30 was approx. Dec 1, 2004. It spent a lot of time in the 20 to 32 area in 2000-2004; so $30 may not be unrealistic.
On the other hand, once economies eventually begin to recover, the reported $70+ deep sea finding and lifting cost may be more of a central value.
Posted by: Richard Shaw | December 15, 2008 at 09:52 PM
That is a very nice chart. Thank you.
No way to tell if they will be as wrong on the downside as the upside, but analysts do tend to extrapolate trends too far.
The current market price for oil is approximately at the 10-year monthly simple moving average price.
The last time oil was at $30 was approx. Dec 1, 2004. It spent a lot of time in the 20 to 32 area in 2000-2004; so $30 may not be unrealistic.
On the other hand, once economies eventually begin to recover, the reported $70+ deep sea finding and lifting cost may be more of a central value.
Posted by: Richard Shaw | December 15, 2008 at 09:54 PM
dont really think oil will go lower than 30$.
here is my reason:
- cost of making a barrel is very high( transportation, barrel container)
- at 30$, all oil sand projects will stop. pushing the supply down,
Posted by: Simple Life | December 16, 2008 at 11:49 PM