Yesterday we highlighted consensus analyst estimates for the price of crude oil. Below we provide the consensus price target for gold through 2012. These target prices are based on the median of 21 gold analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. As shown, analysts currently aren't expecting a big rally or a big decline in gold over the next few years. By mid-year 2009, analysts are expecting gold to be at $825/ounce, which is less than $10 from its current price of $816. At the end of 2011, analysts expect gold to be down to $790, and then down to $762 by the end of 2012.
More proof that analysts are always behind the curve.
Posted by: Adam | December 12, 2008 at 10:11 AM
It would be interesting to find out what the analyst community's expectations were from 2000 to 2008. My guess is that every one of them missed the huge rise in gold prices just as they will miss this one.
Posted by: alexp | December 13, 2008 at 09:41 AM
This would be more useful if we link with analysts' consensus view of value of USD against major currencies so as to separate the currency value impact implied in the gold price.
Posted by: Gaurang Shah | December 14, 2008 at 07:53 AM
Wow, your historic gold estimates aren't even close. Why should we believe your future estimates?
Boy do I feel dumb loading up on gold when it was at $750.
NOT
Posted by: anaonymous | October 13, 2009 at 09:05 PM