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The S&P 500 has now erased 100% of the bull market from 2002 to 2007. Like the lost city of Atlantis, the bull market we enjoyed from 2002 to 2007 has now been relegated to the status of legends. People may talk about it for generations, but looking at the levels of the major indices, there is no longer any proof that it ever existed.
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Seems a playable bottom is more likely at hand. Which is not to say a "new bull market" is about to break out. But a 30-50% bounce? A quite reasonable expectation at this point. Sure, there's probably more trouble ahead ... sometime over the next few years. But right now, there appears better opportunity on the long side. My biggest fear is a melt-up leaving most players in the dust.
Posted by: Tom Chechatka | November 20, 2008 at 06:36 PM