Consensus Economist GDP Estimates and Recession Odds

Earlier in the week, Bloomberg released their monthly survey of more than 50 economists.  In this month's survey, the median estimate for the odds of a US recession in the next 12 months was at 51%, about inline with the 50% readings in the prior two months.  Recession odds from economists seem to have peaked in the April survey at 70% for the time being.

The median economist estimate for GDP growth in each of the next four quarters also remains positive.  Economists are expecting growth of 1% in Q3 '08, 0.4% in Q4 '08, 1.4% in Q1 '09, and 2.1% in Q2 '09.