Earlier in the week, Bloomberg released their monthly survey of more than 50 economists. In this month's survey, the median estimate for the odds of a US recession in the next 12 months was at 51%, about inline with the 50% readings in the prior two months. Recession odds from economists seem to have peaked in the April survey at 70% for the time being.
The median economist estimate for GDP growth in each of the next four quarters also remains positive. Economists are expecting growth of 1% in Q3 '08, 0.4% in Q4 '08, 1.4% in Q1 '09, and 2.1% in Q2 '09.