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In Pamplona they have the bulls, but in the US we have bears. Today's weekly sentiment reading from Investors Intelligence showed that 47.3% of newsletter writers are currently bearish. This is the highest reading of bearish sentiment since September 1998 when Russia defaulted and Long Term Capital blew up.
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what periods were higher than 47.3% bears?
Posted by: BB | July 09, 2008 at 12:32 PM
There are fewer bulls Pamplona(wall street)means a boring summer rally.
Posted by: dj | July 09, 2008 at 12:57 PM
couple of points...
As shown, this is a very volatile chart. I would like to see a moving average along with it.
Second, is this or its moving average a leading, lagging, or coincident indicator? Plotted against the SP500 would be useful.
My guess would be lagging, or coincindent at best.
Posted by: San Fran Sam | July 09, 2008 at 01:19 PM
the bottom in 1998 was really scary. Remember rumors of leh going bust and many financials were down 5-10% at the day of the bottom.
The market seems to be a slow moving trainwreck. When will the real panic occur? It just seems that there is alot of money on the sidelines looking to get in on any bounce.
the mother of all bubbles will not bottom with a whimper but a bang.
what has been the worse sentiment readings and at what period of time?
Posted by: BB | July 09, 2008 at 03:14 PM