US Recession: Economists Now Inline With Traders

Bloomberg released its monthly survey of economists this morning, and as shown below, the economists collectively say there is now a 70% chance of a recession in the US in the next year.  This is a big increase from the last two months when they put the odds at 50%.

Over at the prediction market, Intrade, the odds for a recession in 2008 have been much higher since the start of the year.  As shown in the bottom chart, traders of Intrade recession contracts have had the odds of a recession at or close to 70% since the beginning of '08, when economists were still at 40%.  Now, the two are right inline with each other.