Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot

With commodities down sharply once again today, and the news media already asking everyone and their mother's if this is the end of the boom, below we highlight our trading range charts of major commodities.  The green shading represents two standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average.  When the price moves above the green shading, it is considered overbought (oversold when below).  We provide trend and support lines where necessary.

Just as $100 per barrel was a key resistance point for oil on the way up, it is now acting as key support.  Oil is currently trading below $100 at $99.25, and if it closes below the $100 support level today, the bears will remain in charge for the time being.  Natural gas hasn't quite tested its support level yet.

Bespoke readers surely remember our post a couple of weeks ago highlighting the CEO of Barrick Gold saying he would not hedge gold when it was near $1000, and that it "has a lot of room to run."  He reiterated those statements once again on March 13th.  While he may be right and gold could still rally significantly, if a few days ago was the top, it would sure be ironic.  As shown below, gold has broken one of its shorter-term uptrend lines in recent days, but it still needs to get down to the $900 level to test its longer-term uptrend line.

Platinum rose a lot more than gold did in recent months, and its decline has been steeper as well.  Because it went parabolic, it has a ways to go to get to the bottom of its uptrend.  Copper, on the other hand, never really got going on the upside, and it recently broke support.

While other commodities rallied in recent months, orange juice fell.  In recent days, it even took out its lows from last summer.  Coffee has really taken a hit since it peaked in early March.  As shown below, it broke its uptrend as well.

    

Comments

[BenBittrolff]

Massive De-leveraging Slams Commodities
(http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/03/massive-de-leveraging-slams-commodities.html)