Commodities: The Past and The Future

Below we highlight the one-year price change (%) of 18 commodities.  As shown, the gains have been enormous for many of them, with wheat leading the way at 99%.  Lead, platinum and soybeans rank 2nd, 3rd and 4th, all with gains of more than 70%.  Oil is up 65% and gold is up 39% (doesn't it seem like gold is up much more than that?).  Only two commodities are down over the past year -- Zinc and Nickel.

So what are analysts expecting for these same commodities going forward?  Bloomberg tracks the consensus price forecasts of commodity analysts, and below we highlight the difference between current prices and year-end 2008 price expectations.  While only two commodities are down over the past year, only two are expected to be higher than they are now by the end of 2008.  The two commodities that are up the most over the past year are expected to go down the most going forward.  Oil is expected to decline 19% to $80/barrel, and Gold is expected to decline 15% to $807/ounce.       

 

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Comments

[DonB]

I wonder what the consensus price forecasts of these analysts looked like a year ago. Do you have a track record on them?

[messels]

copper is looking really sweet lately. i've been holding PCU for a few months (i'm a long term investor) and it's already in the green by about 15%, that's on top of a 4.9% div (that was REDUCED due to strikes). hawt.

[Oldedit]

Yes, commodity bubbles burst. All you have to do is time the tops. And that takes some skill.