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Odds for a recession at the prediction market, Intrade, are now at 70%. They were below 50 at the end of 2007. Things have gotten quite ugly very fast. With no GDP data for this year coming out until the end of April, we're going to have to wait a long time to even start to get closure if in fact we do have a recession this year. And we all know how much the market hates uncertainty.
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