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Since 1940, the average change of the S&P 500 from the last close before the Christmas holiday to the last day of the year has been a very positive 0.79%. Over the last ten years, the index has averaged a gain of 57 bps with gains 80% of the time. Since the current bull market began in 2002, however, the index has actually averaged a decline of 14 bps from Christmas to year end, with gains 3 out of 5 times.
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