Presidential Election Cycle Data
Scott Patterson skeptically highlighted the Presidential election cycle in today's Wall Street Journal. With year four of President's Bush's final term coming up in 2008, below we provide the average performance of various asset classes in each year of the election cycle. As shown, since 1948, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 8.62% in the fourth year of a President's term, although the average declines to 3.75% in the fourth year of a President's second term. The US Dollar and Oil have also averaged gains in year four, while the CRB Commodity Index has been relatively flat. Treasuries have also risen in year four of a President's second term. Since 1948, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note has averaged a decline of 5.35% in years like 2008.
Nice averages, but...do they really say anything? How about some confidence intervals? Are the quarterly numbers really statistically different from each other?
Posted by: Thomas Johnson | December 28, 2007 at 05:06 PM