Recession Odds in 2008 Over 50%

We decided to click over to one of our favorite off topic sites, Intrade, to see where traders over there are currently putting the odds of an '08 recession.  As shown by the historical chart of the Intrade contract below, the odds of an '08 recession (defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) are 55%.  Traders are willing to pay 55 cents now to receive a dollar if there is a recession and lose it all if there isn't. 

On another note, Intrade contracts for Hillary Clinton to win the 2008 Presidential election are putting the odds at 43.9% (Giuliani is a distant 2nd at 16.1%).  And who will win the World Series?  The odds for the Yankees are at 22% and the Red Sox at 20.5%.  Interestingly, the odds for the Cubs to win are currently higher than the Angels, Indians, Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rockies -- all teams who had better regular season records than the Cubs.  Looks like Cubs fans have high hopes.